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发布时间:2014-01-06 16:01:00  

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China's economic blueprint Take five


The prime minister lays down how China’s economy is to look in 2015 总理为2015年的中国经济状况定调。

“GRANDPA WEN”, China’s prime minister, Wen Jiabao, is a hands-on patriarch. In his annual speech to China’s National People’s Congress on March 5th he reflected on the government’s work over the past year,

its priorities for this year, and its new five-year plan, which the

congress must ratify. Like a good guardian, Grandpa Wen neglected no aspect of his wards’lives.

中国总理温家宝爷爷是一位干实事的爷爷。 在3月5日的中国全国人民代表大会的演讲中,他回顾了过去一年的政府工作,提出了今年的优先任务和将在这次大会上通过的新的五年规划。 与负责任的监护人一样,温爷爷照顾到了其监护之人的生活的方方面面。

On top of the stern duties of safeguarding price stability and national security, Mr Wen promised to enhance national creativity, enrich philosophy, arouse an innovative spirit, resolutely oppose extravagance—and ensure one hour of physical exercise in schools every day.

除了保持物价稳定和维护国家安全的当务之急外, 温总理承诺将提高国家的创造性,丰富哲学,激发创新精神,杜绝浪费并且确保学校每天安排一个小时的体育锻炼。

The aim of all this enhancing and arousing is, by the end of the decade, to turn China into a xiaokang society. The term traces back to the Confucian “Book of Songs”, and suggests a moderately prosperous society that can begin to enjoy the fruits of its labours. To help China on its way, Mr Wen set a target for economic growth of 7% a year for 2011-15. The figure should not be taken too literally. A target of 7.5% for the past five years did not stop China growing by more than 11% over that period.

所有这些提高和激发的目标是,到这个十年底,使中国成为小康社会。 小康一词出自孔子的《诗经》,是小康社会开始享受其劳动成果的意思。 为了使中国成为小康社会,中国为2011年-2015年设立了7%的平均经济增长率。 不应过分看重这一数字。 过去五年的目标为7.5%,但同期中国的实际增长率却超过11%。 Still, the target is lower than it was in the previous plan, suggesting that the pattern of growth now matters as much as the speed. Indeed, Mr Wen said the country’s development is neither balanced, co-ordinated nor sustainable. It relies too heavily on investment and on swallowing natural resources and too little on consumer spending. The income generated is unevenly divided: between profits and wages, rich households and poor, coastal provinces and inland regions, the cities and the countryside. 此外,设定的目标低于上次规划的目标表明增长的模式和速度同样重要。 实际上,温家宝表示中国的发展不平衡,不协调并且是不可持续的。 它过于依赖投资和自然资源的消耗,对消费支出的依赖不够。 收入分配不均:利润和工资之间、富裕家庭和穷人之间、沿海省份和内陆地区之间、城乡之间。

The prime minister also admitted that China had failed to meet at least three targets he set in the previous five-year plan. Two related to China’s service industries, which last year accounted for 43% of its GDP and 35% of its employment. Countries at China’s stage of development typically have service sectors approaching three-fifths of GDP.

总理还承认,在上一个五年规划中,中国至少有三个目标没有实现。 其中两个与中国的服务业有关,去年服务业占到了国内生产总值的43%,创造了35%的就业岗位。 处于中国这样发展水平的国家的服务业应该接近国内生产总值的五分之三。

Most of China’s more lucrative services markets, such as for telecoms, are dominated by stateowned enterprises (SOEs). The “investment hunger” of the SOEs, which borrow cheaply from state banks as well as recycle outsized profits, is a chief cause of China’s unbalanced development. Mr Wen promised to implement no fewer than 36 guidelines for opening the “glass doors” preventing private investment in many fields not explicitly reserved for the state. Such fields include transport, power and municipal utilities.

大多数中国利润较丰厚的服务市场,如电信业都是由国有企业主导的。 国有企业的“投资欲望”是中国发展不平衡的重要原因之一,它能从国有银行获得廉价的贷款并获取巨额利润。 温家宝承诺将至少实行36项指导方针打开“玻璃门”,这些玻璃门在众多不是明确为国家控制的领域阻碍了私人投资。 其中包括交通、电力和市政公共设施。

Regrettably, in the year ahead these liberalisations may be offset by efforts to stop the economy from overheating. The government is trying to contain inflation by squeezing credit. And although it urges banks to keep lending to smaller companies, lenders are sure to turn private borrowers away before disappointing state-owned ones. If necessary, Mr Wen says, the government will also control prices by “administrative means”. Liberal-minded types will take some comfort from Mr Wen’s promise to “press ahead” with making the yuan convertible for capital-account transactions, a commitment missing from his previous two reports.

令人遗憾的是,今年这些自由化的措施可能会被阻止经济过热的努力抵消。 政府正试图通过减少信贷遏制通胀。 此外,尽管政府督促各银行继续为较小企业提供贷款,但是银行必定会在令国有企业失望之前回绝私人借贷者。 温家宝表示,如有必要,政府还将采取行政手段控制价格。 自由思想者将从温家宝“推进”人民币在资本账户交易中自由兑换的承诺中获得一些安慰,在其前两份报告中都没有作出这项承诺。

He also promised to push forward with the “market-based reform” of interest rates. The hope is that freer rates would better reward household savers, discourage excessive investment and possibly allow private borrowers to get loans from state banks by offering to pay higher rates. But Chinese leaders have often before promised to liberalise rates. 他还承诺推进“以市场为基础的利率改革”。 更加自由的利率可能会让家庭储户获得更好的回报,抑制过多投资并可能让私人借贷者通过支付更高的利率从国有银行获得贷款。 但是中国此前也常常承诺让利率自由浮动。

China’s idiosyncratic pattern of development is never easy to categorise. To some it represents a new model of state capitalism: “a Beijing consensus” to rival the “Washington consensus” first identified by John Williamson of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Others think China is moving closer to the Washington model. Arthur Kroeber of Dragonomics, a consultancy, argues that it has made solid progress on eight of Mr Williamson’s ten commandments, including fiscal discipline and an openness to foreign trade and direct investment. To follow through on its promise to liberalise interest rates would make a welcome ninth.

中国与众不同的发展模式从来都不易归类。 在一些人看来,它是一种新的国家资本主义模式:“北京共识”,与彼得森国际经济研究所的约翰·威廉姆森首次提出的“华盛顿共识”相对。 还有人认为中国正一步步接近华盛顿模式。 龙洲经讯咨询公司的葛艺豪称,在威廉姆森设立的十戒中,有八戒,中国取得了稳步的进展,包括财政纪律和向国外贸易和直接投资开放。 兑现其让利率自由浮动的承诺将成为取得进展的第九戒,这是受人欢迎的。

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